Description: Presented at Living to 100 and Beyond symposium 2002. Discussion of two papers, 'Approaches and Experiences in Projecting Mortality Patterns for the Oldest Old' by Buettner and 'Using Dynamic Reliability in Estimating Mortality at Advanced Ages' by Lin. The first paper discusses the UN methodology for projecting mortality above age 80 and presents another approach for addressing the problem of table closing. The second paper suggests a new statistical model for fitting and estimation of mortality rates at advanced ages.

Description: This article analyzes mortality trajectories of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) and tests hypothesis about flat mortality at these extreme ages.

Description: Centenarians persons living to age 100 and over represent a population that could be useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. This study explores whether people living to 100 and beyond were any different from their peers at their middle age 30 years in terms of their physical characteristics height and body build, occupation and marital status.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: It is believed that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages. We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models-the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women in the age interval 80-105 years. In all cases the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly better than the Kannisto model. Another approach to study mortality patterns at advanced ages is based on Life table Aging Rate (LAR). It was found that for all studied 24 single-year birth cohorts LAR does not change significantly with age in the age interval 80-100 years suggesting the validity of Gompertz law. These results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a universal phenomenon, and human survival follows the Gompertz law up to very old ages.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: Discussion of Session 5B: Papers presented: Data Validation and Measurement of Cohort Mortality among Centenarians in Quebec and Physical and Socioeconomic Characteristics at a Young Age as Predictors of Survival

Description: We suggest a new method of latent variable analysis and apply it for describing mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900--2014.

Description: Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life conditions and mid-life environment play a significant role in survival to advanced ages. However, little is known about simultaneous effects of all these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill this gap by comparing American centenarians born in 1890-1891 with their short-lived peers born in 1890 and died at age 65 years. The records were taken from computerized family histories, which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. The study found that parental longevity and some mid-life characteristics proved to be significant predictors of longevity while the role of childhood conditions was less important. More centenarians were born in the second half of the year compared to controls suggesting early origins of longevity. The results of this study suggest that familial background, early-life conditions and mid-life characteristics play an important role in longevity.

Description: Abstract: It is believed that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages. We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models-the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women in the age interval 80-105 years. In all cases the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly better than the Kannisto model. Another approach to study mortality patterns at advanced ages is based on Life table Aging Rate (LAR). It was found that for all studied 24 single-year birth cohorts LAR does not change significantly with age in the age interval 80-100 years suggesting the validity of Gompertz law. These results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a universal phenomenon, and human survival follows the Gompertz law up to very old ages