Description: This paper is the final report in a project commissioned by the Society of Actuaries Social Security Committee. The paper considers a variety of possible risk classification factors that could be used in estimating the value of any mortality based benefit for retirees. As many countries consider mandatory individual retirement accounts as their answer to a secure Social Security system, the question arises as to whether all workers can get true 'market value' annuities when they retire. It is clear today that private sector life annuities are priced assuming that the applicant is healthy-very healthy. Very little underwriting or risk classification now exists in the individual annuity marketplace. This paper reviews 45 recent research papers that look at factors that affect mortality after retirement. In particular, factors that seem to be important in predicting retirement mortality include: age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, occupation, marital status, religion, health behaviors, smoking, alcohol, and obesity. For each factor, this paper gives highlights relative to the named factor of the impact expected from that variable as described in the 45 reviewed research papers.

Description: The paper reviews the demographic shifts, including improved life expectancy and the baby-boom/baby-bust cycle, of the past half-century and discusses their impact on the funding of pay-as-you-go paygo social security systems. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: This paper examines the following three questions by reviewing literature that identifies and evaluates the tradeoffs among annuitization and self-managed drawdown strategies: 1. How DO Retirees Draw Down their Financial Savings? 2. How COULD Retirees Draw Down their Financial Savings? 3. How SHOULD Retirees Draw Down their Financial Savings?

Description: The Canadian public health care delivery system continues to experience growing needs for increased funding. The total health care delivery system today costs Canadians $98 billion a year or about 9.7 percent of GDP. Of that total cost, 71 percent is paid by the government, which means the taxpayers. While that may pale in comparison to the costs in the U.S., it does make the Canadian system one of the five most expensive health care delivery systems in the world. While today’s cost pressures are of major concern, of even more concern are the costs being projected by many participants in the current health care debate for the period when the Baby Boom makes higher demands on the Canadian health care delivery system. Traditional projection methods, however, do not differentiate between the elderly who survive the year versus those who die as to their use of health care systems. This paper first looks at the impact that this differentiation could have on projected costs. Second, the paper looks at the impact that the wide use of Advance Directives [also called Living Wills] might have on future health care costs and some of the issues surrounding their use. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2004, Vol. 1.

Description: Mortality rates affect many facets of an actuary’s work. The ability to collect more detailed data and the possibilities presented by more advanced analytical tools influenced the Society of Actuaries to embark on this two-phased project examining the factors affecting retirement mortality. Phase I of the project includes a comprehensive literature search and summary identifying 12 factors linked to mortality experience at or after age 65- age, alcohol, education, gender, health behaviors, income, marital status, obesity, occupation, race & ethnicity, religion and smoking. In Phase II of the project, existing Society of Actuaries experience studies are reviewed to see which factors could be added to the studies. This phase also considers methods for reflecting the additional factors in the mortality tables. This web page contains links to the Phase I and Phase II reports and supporting documentation.

Description: This paper reviews the recently published Canadian literature on changing Canadian demographic profiles and highlights the actuarial aspects of the information provided therein. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: There is growing evidence of a positive correlation between income levels and longevity. In short, high-income earners live longer. That also means that high-income earners get larger retirement-income security benefits from Social Security. This correlation raises a number of questions: if Social Security contributions are a level percentage of earnings, and high-income earners live longer and receive larger Social Security benefits, then is Social Security regressive? If higher-income actually causes enhanced longevity, then would providing more Social Security benefits enhance population life expectancy? This paper analyzes both the OASDI system of the United States and the Canada/Quebec Pension Plans in Canada to see if these systems are 'a good deal' and whether they are regressive or progressive as defined above. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1998 Vol. 1.

Description: Presents a theoretical basis for a computerized methodology for estimating biological age - a measure of time to death.

Description: This paper discusses the rectangulatization of the survivorship curve and some related puzzling deviations between expectations and observations. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 2.

Description: This paper investigates the accuracy of loss reserves by comparing some reserves with the actual results five years hence. The ultimate purpose was to provide an estimate of the amount of variability which cannot be explained by listed factors. The resulting amount of variability gives an indication of the amount required for a provision for adverse deviation. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1