Description: This is a final report to estimate the total economic cost of obesity. This study looks at the economic costs of obesity caused by increased need for medical care, and loss of economic productivity resulting from excess mortality and disability. The Society of Actuaries breaks out the economic cost of overweight versus obesity for the U.S. and for Canada.

Description: This paper addresses some pervasive problems in using secondary data in actuarial research. An approach to solving these problems is based on information theory. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: This paper employs the theory of real option pricing to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, it develops a two-stage model to help firms determine the optimal triggers in the event of an influenza pandemic. The first stage proposes a regime-dependent epidemic model to simulate the spread of the virus, depending on whether the firm is active or inactive. The second stage views the reactivation decision as a call option and the suspension decision as a put option, and uses dynamic programming method to determine the optimal switching thresholds.

Description: This paper presents a statistical methodology based upon information theory, for adjusting mortality tables to obtain exactly some known individual characteristics, while obtaining a table that is as close as possible to a standard one. Followed by a discussion paper submitted

Description: This paper examines the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds. Catastrophe risk cannot be hedged by traditional securities. Therefore the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds requires an incomplete markets setting and this creates special difficulties in the pricing methodology. The paper briefly discusses the theory of equilibrium pricing and its relationship to the standard arbitrage-free valuation framework. Equilibrium pricing theory is used to develop a pricing method based on a model of the term structure of interest rates and a probability structure for the catastrophe risk. This pricing methodology can be used to assess the default spread on catastrophe risk bonds relative to traditional defaultable securities.

Description: Discussion of how to obtain tight upper and lower bounds on E[hX] for a given function h, and a random variable X with three known moments.

Description: In his original monograph on portfolio selection, Markowitz [1952] discusses the tradeoff between the mean and variance of a portfolio. Since then, especially recently, much attention has been focused on asymmetric distributions to minimize risks with given return goal for investors who have special skewness preferences. To address this issue, this paper extends Krokhmal et al. [2002]’s approach by adding CVaR-like constraints to the traditional portfolio optimization problem. The CVaR optimization technique has the advantage of reshaping either the left or right tail of a distribution while not significantly affecting the other. Specifically, this approach is used to manage the skewness of asset-liability portfolios of financial institutions. In addition, the CVaR-like constraints approach is compared with traditional Markowitz method and some other alternatives such as, the CVaR approach [directly optimize CVaR], the Boyle-Ding approach as well as the mean-absolute deviation [MAD] approach. Numerical analysis provides empirical support for the superiority of CVaR-like constraints approach in terms of skewness improvement of mean-variance portfolios.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of an insurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: Shows how to use personal information such as medical history, family characteristics, etc. in a logical statistical fashion for the purpose of modifying an existing mortality table to reflect the collected underwriting information.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of a reinsurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. Bounds on the expected exercise value of a financial option are considered also because the mathematical model used for valuing options is similar to that used in reinsurance net premium calculations. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.