Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Pension Section Research Committee commissioned this study to help actuaries develop forward thinking long-term estimates of future equity risk premiums. Equity risk premium is the amount by which the total return of a stock market index, such as the S&P 500, exceeds that of government bonds. Equity risk premiums, calculated from historical data, have been used to project long term values of equity portfolios in retirement plans. The validity of using historical data to project future equity returns will be examined along with other forward looking methods.

Description: A research report providing a primer on the mechanics and uses of the Hidden Markov Model for actuarial and financial applications.

Description: Over a short span of two weeks, the financial system has observed the collapse of two mid-sized U.S. commercial banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) and New York-based Signature Bank, and a takeover of troubled Credit Suisse by a rival in Europe. Other banks that serve a similar demographic as SVB, such as First Republic Bank and PacWest Bancorp, have also experienced an elevated level of customer deposit withdrawals while their stock prices plummeted. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) quickly stepped in and guaranteed all deposits from the failed banks to prevent a broader crisis in the banking system. The current turmoil in the financial system is a stark reminder of the importance of effective risk management and regulation.

Description: A research report providing a primer on the mechanics and uses of the Hidden Markov Model for actuarial and financial applications.