Description: This is a final report to estimate the total economic cost of obesity. This study looks at the economic costs of obesity caused by increased need for medical care, and loss of economic productivity resulting from excess mortality and disability. The Society of Actuaries breaks out the economic cost of overweight versus obesity for the U.S. and for Canada.

Description: In his original monograph on portfolio selection, Markowitz [1952] discusses the tradeoff between the mean and variance of a portfolio. Since then, especially recently, much attention has been focused on asymmetric distributions to minimize risks with given return goal for investors who have special skewness preferences. To address this issue, this paper extends Krokhmal et al. [2002]’s approach by adding CVaR-like constraints to the traditional portfolio optimization problem. The CVaR optimization technique has the advantage of reshaping either the left or right tail of a distribution while not significantly affecting the other. Specifically, this approach is used to manage the skewness of asset-liability portfolios of financial institutions. In addition, the CVaR-like constraints approach is compared with traditional Markowitz method and some other alternatives such as, the CVaR approach [directly optimize CVaR], the Boyle-Ding approach as well as the mean-absolute deviation [MAD] approach. Numerical analysis provides empirical support for the superiority of CVaR-like constraints approach in terms of skewness improvement of mean-variance portfolios.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to study mortality-based securities, such as mortality bonds and swaps, and to price the proposed mortality securities. The focus is on individual annuity data, although some of the modeling techniques could be applied to other lines of annuity or life insurance.

Description: Securitization of mortality risks is an alternative risk management tool that may have some advantages over reinsurance. The purpose of this paper is to study mortality-based securities, such as swaps and mortality bonds, and to price the proposed mortality securities. We focus on group life annuity data, although the techniques could be applied to other lines of annuity or life insurance.

Description: Sometimes, rare things happen and the least expected occurs. Indeed, some events occur once or twice in a lifetime leaving little room to learn from experiences. In financial markets, extreme events, no matter how rare, could have a profound impact on a company or even the whole country. Insurers are also not free from the impact of catastrophic large-scale extreme events. As a result, with pervasive economic and financial revolutions sweeping our world and potential devastative catastrophes, the increasing interest in tail risk management is fuelled by practical issues, including investment downside risk and insurance catastrophe risk. Thus, developing statistical techniques to model extreme investment and insurance losses is certainly a major task for risk managers. the purpose of our paper is to apply moment methods to estimate the joint events such as concurrent extreme investment loss and insurance loss. A novel aspect of this article is that it takes into account the correlation between different assets and insurance lines of business.

Description: We devise an approach, using tobit models for modeling annuity lapse rates. The approach is based on data provided by the Society of Actuaries’ Risk Management Task Force. Kim [2005a] models annuity lapse rates using a logit model and the same US data (he also used Korean data separately). We find that the tobit model is a more than suitable approach for all levels of the explanatory variables including interest rates, unemployment rates, and GDP growth rates. Specifically, policyholder behavior in the tail of the distribution of lapse rates is explained as well as it is in the normal range of lapse rates.

Description: The values of life insurance and annuity liabilities move in opposite directions in response to a change in the underlying mortality. Natural hedging utilizes this to stabilize aggregate liability cash flows. Our study shows empirical evidence that insurers who utilize natural hedging also charge lower premiums than otherwise similar insurers. This indicates that insurers who are able to utilize natural hedging have a competitive advantage. In addition, we show how a mortality swap might be used to provide the benefits of natural hedging to a firm that writes only one of the lines of business.