Description: Excellent big picture view for planning a social insurance system with pay-as-you-go, required self-funded, and voluntary plans.

Description: At our Houston meeting PD l, Donald D. Hester, Professor of Economics at University of Wisconsin, outlined a novel investment system aimed at protecting purchasing power of the lender’s funds from inflation’s ravages. This article is summary of that presentation.

Description: This paper attempts to fill the gap in literature by empirically assessing the adequacy of the supply of bonds, quantifying the price impact, gauging the actuarial cost, and proposing appropriate government policy measures.

Description: This is a report about inflation and index-linked securities in the United Kingdom.

Description: This presentation is a section meeting from the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held October 20-23 in Toronto. The guest speaker discusses prospective returns on financial assets, noting that the past, particularly the 1980s, is in many respects irrelevant in making projections of future returns, noting the decade of the 1980s was a nonrecurring and unsustainable period. He provides his thoughts in terms of projected real economic growth, projected inflation, projected real interest rates, and using that data makes projections of returns from a variety of financial assets. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 17, No. 4B.

Description: The author notes that “many considerations enter into the determination of investment strategy. Important among these considerations is the maximization of investment income on an after-tax basis rather than on a before-tax basis.” The article then discusses how starting in the early 1960’s insurers, using a marginal tax rate approach, invested heavily in tax exempt bonds. The author, expressing his belief that a major depression is likely to occur in the next 10 years, recommends insurance companies divest of their holding in tax exempt instruments, based on the macroeconomic analysis he presents.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This session is about the methods of projecting long-run stock returns using inflation rates from bond yield curves with incremental returns for risk taking based on historical data and the relationship between concurrent, expected and unexpected inflation rates and the rates of return on common stocks and U.S. government bonds and notes. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 5, No. 4.

Description: This article questions the validity of long term market return expectations using macroeconomics and analytical arguments.