Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 7D: Emerging Trends in Lapse and Mortality for Life Products 9.1.21 Recording

Description: In summer 2021, the SOA Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program sponsored a webcast examining individual life and group life emerging mortality in a COVID-19 world. Since then, Delta and Omicron coronavirus variants have fueled waves of the virus in the U.S., boosting the total number of COVID-19 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic to near the 1 million mark. Hear an update and insights into how the life insured population is faring during COVID-19 by discussing the findings from two recent SOA Research Institute initiatives. LIMRA, Reinsurance Group of America (RGA), the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and TAI have collaborated to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the individual life insurance industry’s mortality experience. Additionally, the SOA Research Institute has surveyed insurers to gather a high-level view of U.S. Group Term Life Insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing them to pre-pandemic mortality levels. The Group Term Life industry mortality results will be presented with monthly data through March 2022.

Description: The session will highlight trends in recent industry mortality and lapse studies that have been conducted, including areas where individual companies typically have limited data. The sources of data feature SOA studies as well as other industry studies conducted by consultants and/or reinsurers. Gain an understanding of current drivers of mortality and lapse experience for life insurance evidenced in industry studies, and an understanding of available data to supplement experience in areas where you may have limited internal experience.

Description: Term products exhibit a wide range of behavior as policyholders can elect different term periods and conversion options. While term products have been around for decades, it's only recently that longer level term products are reaching the end of the level term period. Term conversions have historically been an afterthought and are rarely modeled. Discuss the use of predictive modeling techniques such as LASSO regression and cross-validation to build models for level term lapses and post-level term shock lapses, as well as the extrapolation of experience for shorter term products to longer term products (e.g., extrapolating 20-year term experience and applying to 30-year term). Explore the use of traditional techniques to develop term conversion rates and a framework for modeling the assumption. Challenges and limitations of setting lapse and conversion rates will be discussed. By attending the session, you will: - Understand the complexities of term policyholder behavior. - Understand the challenges in developing and implementing assumptions for lapses and conversions. - Understand the application of traditional and predictive modeling techniques for term policyholder behavior.

Description: The most recent U.S. population data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the U.S. Census at year-end 2021 includes the first ten months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. While we know the pandemic has had significant impacts on both the U.S. population and insured population mortality, we also see increased mortality due to many other non-COVID causes of death. Where are the biggest changes and what does this non-COVID excess mortality mean over the next few years? Take part as an expert panel hosts an interactive discussion to examine data from general population as well as from both individual life and group life experience studies to explore how these changes might spur innovation in underwriting, assumption setting and pricing.

Description: Come prepared for an engaging workshop where you will have the opportunity to share thoughts on and work through a variety of questions concerning how actuaries must adapt to account for newer underwriting and distribution practices. Seating will be limited for this workshop focused on life actuaries who price and set assumptions for products impacted by new underwriting tools and processes such as accelerated underwriting (AU) or direct-to-consumer (DTC) distribution.

Description: Stay current with the latest mortality trends and practices in this wide-ranging session, covering research performed by the SOA and their collaborators, including recent research from the SOA's Individual Life Experience Committee. Topics will include mortality improvement, mortality by socioeconomic category, cause of death analysis, and insurance company life experience quintile analysis.

Description: After a sustained period of mortality improvement, U.S. population mortality improvement has stagnated in recent years. The presenters will discuss mortality improvement trends in the U.S. population and the causes of death contributing to these trends. U.S. population cause of death trends will be analyzed and compared to trends in the insured population. Mortality rates for major causes of death will be compared between the U.S. population and the insured population. In addition, assumption setting for both older age and later duration mortality as well as mortality improvement will be covered.

Description: Universal Life with Secondary Guarantees (ULSG) was first introduced in the late 1990's as low-cost, long-term death benefit protection. As this business ages, writers are experiencing pressured earnings from emerging experience, secondary markets for insurance products and low interest rates. In response, writers are sharpening their pencils on experience analysis and risk management with an eye for opportunities to increase the performance of their blocks.

Description: In this session, the latest research from the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute examining the impact of COVID-19 on mortality is highlighted. Included will be insights into how the life insured population is faring during COVID-19. Among the studies presented is an effort underway to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the individual life insurance industry’s mortality experience. Additionally, the SOA Research Institute surveyed insurers to gather a high-level view of U.S. group term life insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic and comparing them to pre-pandemic mortality levels. By attending this session, you will:•Understand SOA Research Institute activities on COVID-19's influence on mortality•Apply research results and insights presented in daily work.