Description: Term products exhibit a wide range of behavior as policyholders can elect different term periods and conversion options. While term products have been around for decades, it's only recently that longer level term products are reaching the end of the level term period. Term conversions have historically been an afterthought and are rarely modeled. Discuss the use of predictive modeling techniques such as LASSO regression and cross-validation to build models for level term lapses and post-level term shock lapses, as well as the extrapolation of experience for shorter term products to longer term products (e.g., extrapolating 20-year term experience and applying to 30-year term). Explore the use of traditional techniques to develop term conversion rates and a framework for modeling the assumption. Challenges and limitations of setting lapse and conversion rates will be discussed. By attending the session, you will: - Understand the complexities of term policyholder behavior. - Understand the challenges in developing and implementing assumptions for lapses and conversions. - Understand the application of traditional and predictive modeling techniques for term policyholder behavior.

Description: The most recent U.S. population data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and from the U.S. Census at year-end 2021 includes the first ten months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. While we know the pandemic has had significant impacts on both the U.S. population and insured population mortality, we also see increased mortality due to many other non-COVID causes of death. Where are the biggest changes and what does this non-COVID excess mortality mean over the next few years? Take part as an expert panel hosts an interactive discussion to examine data from general population as well as from both individual life and group life experience studies to explore how these changes might spur innovation in underwriting, assumption setting and pricing.

Description: In this session, the latest research from the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute examining the impact of COVID-19 on mortality is highlighted. Included will be insights into how the life insured population is faring during COVID-19. Among the studies presented is an effort underway to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the individual life insurance industry’s mortality experience. Additionally, the SOA Research Institute surveyed insurers to gather a high-level view of U.S. group term life insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic and comparing them to pre-pandemic mortality levels. By attending this session, you will:•Understand SOA Research Institute activities on COVID-19's influence on mortality•Apply research results and insights presented in daily work.

Description: Discuss changes in group life waiver of premium claim recovery and mortality experience since the 2005 table was released, the development of the 2023 table, and the new statutory valuation standard approved by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC).

Description: The Individual Life Experience Committee has numerous research projects underway. Take a look at three current areas of research: the analysis of the interaction of lapse and mortality experience using data from mandatory submissions; a deep dive into old age mortality; and an update on the committee's work to establish a predictive analytics framework that will be open for all actuaries and data scientists to use. By attending the session, you will: - Better understand the research conducted by the Individual Life Experience Committee. - Better understand the link between lapse and mortality experience, appreciate some of the nuances of older age mortality, and gain knowledge about a predictive analytics framework that will be released in the future.

Description: Are Accelerated Underwriting (AU) programs performing as expected? As mortality experience will (hopefully) be slow to emerge, it is pivotal that we look at alternative methods of monitoring early performance. From random hold outs, to post-issue APS's, and post-issue prescription profiles, explore popular monitoring techniques and lessons learned so far. Focus on confusion matrices that provide an early indication of mortality slippage relative to fluid-based underwriting decisions. Finally, explore statistical methods to determine what constitutes credibility and identify opportunities to think about mortality slippage more robustly.

Description: SARS-CoV2 will impact our post-pandemic future. Morbidity more than mortality will impact the life and health business in the mid-term. But how does this temporary disruption in health care elicit long-tail implications on other common diseases and changes in lifestyles? Find out how mid-term pricing could be affected using one case scenario and also show how mental health will particularly shape the post-pandemic future (individually and societal), not only due to long COVID. Review the experience of the insured policies and discuss future ideas for COVID-19 research at the Society of Actuaries Research Institute. Consider recent causes of death studies, as well as reported claims analyses to help expedite the analysis of recent experience. Join us where experts from both the medical and actuarial disciplines join forces to discuss this important topic.