Description: ongoing discussion of the proper interest rate to use in discounting liability cash flows to reflect credit risk of the insurer in a fair value accounting system

Description: Presenters cover the outlook for credit defaults over the next 12 months and approaches used to price the debt market e.g., Merton's 1973 paper and subsequent developments. Attendees leave with an understanding of how the capital markets value debt issuance and knowledge of future trends in default risk. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 1: Washington, D.C. Spring Meeting, May 29–30, 2003, Session 10OF.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.