Description: Can we improve upon traditional methods of risk measurement and risk selection? Panelists discuss potential applications of predictive modeling, including individual underwriting, group rating and provider reimbursement. They focus on ways in which predictive modeling can be used to improve risk selection, experience rating and provider reimbursement. A session at the Health/Pension Spring Meeting held in New Orleans, Louisiana June 15-17, 2005. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.