Description: This session discussion is about tools, techniques, and methods used by the health valuation actuary HVA in dealing with business projections, cash-flow analysis, valuation on nonguaranteed premium business, target surplus analysis, reinsurance and claim reserves. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 18, No. 1A.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.