Description: This is an abstract for the paper, Analysis of Costs for a Chronic Disease with Acute High Cost Episodes by Marjorie Rosenberg and Philip Farrell.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to define a predictive model, based on known system attributes, for assessing risk associated with information systems.

Description: This paper presents Bayesian models for analysis of claim lag data. The analysis of claim runoff patterns investigate the extraction of information on trend and seasonal patterns in incurred claims. This is investigated on the basis of individual group data, and also relative to a larger aggregation of pooled experience. The models are implemented based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The models are applied to examples using simulated claim lag data. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol. 1.