Description: Read the February 2020 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section. Newsletter provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Lincoln Financial Group announced the beginning of a two-year data and analytics talent upskilling program with the Society of Actuaries, a global professional organization for actuaries. The SOA will facilitate training for Lincoln employees through a customized multi-phase educational program focusing on big data and predictive analytics.

Description: Practical Analytics 4.0 Virtual Event recordings

Description: The presenters will share information about: -Insights into causes of death through the use of predictive models, based on a reinsured U.S. life portfolio, using logistic regression models to understand three main causes of death: cancer, heart and external causes; -Opioid abuse is a widespread phenomenon with drug-related mortality rates rising steeply in the U.S. over the past two decades. But what does the most recent data tell U.S. about the outlook for Opioid-related mortality?; -'Deaths of despair' have been publicized as a cause for the poor performance of U.S. mortality in recent years. The presenters will be looking at the different causes under this label, their evolution and explore the drivers behind them.

Description: Editorial for the December 2019 print edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism newsletter describing the large number of informational resources available to PAF Section members.

Description: Data needed to run the Hack-a-Thon that was held at the 2019 PAS.

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: Read the May 2020 issue of Actuarial Technology Today published by the Technology Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: The author presents autoencoders in a clear manner and then goes on to show an intriguing application where an autoencoder can alert us to events out of the ordinary.