Description: Accurate determination of the appropriate time to retire and replace a physical asset is important for large ensembles of such assets when taken as a whole, and concerns the fate of tens of trillions of dollars in assets, such as airplane engines, vehicles, or any other kind of physical asset susceptible to obsolescence. A decision model to accomplish this is derived using the concept of actuarial present value applied to an economic theory of cost minimization. Since this is a theory coupling investor wealth creation with the long-term optimization of the use of scarce resources, it can also be offered as an economic model relevant to sustainability.

Description: The abstract for a paper that focuses on default distributions and why they are important.

Description: Realizing the impact of medical errors on the U.S. health care system, the Health Section commissioned a research project to measure the annual frequency of medical errors and their total measurable direct and indirect cost to the economy.

Description: The is the abstract for a paper that discusses retirement planning information and the signals it provides. It focuses on the issue of communicating lump sum versus income benefits. It discusses challenges in communicating income benefits and provides some alternatives.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates the effect of ambiguity on the market for insurance when preferences are ordered by comparison of Choquet expected utilities.

Description: The abstract for a paper that focuses on when and how we retire.

Description: Diverse Risks 2016 Call for Essays

Description: The abstract for the paper The Impact of The Equity Risk Premium and Population Aging on The Canadian Retirement Savings System.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This abstract describes a presentation that introduces new methods such as Experimental Mathematics, Genetic Algorithms, Predictive Modeling, Deterministic Chaos, Fractal Geometry, Behavioral Economics, Cellular Automata and other topics in Complexity Sciences.