Description: Discussion of methods to estimate unpaid claim liability UCL for health plans. Includes traditional IBNR lag method and a lag method based on claims reported but not paid RBNP. Issue No. 45

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.