Description: This paper presents an approach to analyzing continuing care retirement community [CCRC] data, and demonstrates the methods using data from a large CCRC. It is assumed that residents make transitions among a number of states that represent the levels of care required by residents. There is randomness associated with both the transition times and the states entered at these times. The model is conveniently characterized in terms of transition intensity functions, which represent the instantaneous rates of transition between pairs of states.

Description: Considerable attention has been given in the recent past to the likely economic and social impact of Australia’s ageing population. One particular aspect which continues to be the subject of increased commentary and conjecture, is the need and subsequent costs for Long Term Care LTC. In this paper, a multiple state projection model based on a framework by Rickayzen and Walsh 2002 is constructed in order to project the number of people in Australia who are likely to require LTC.