Description: The adoption of FAS 158 forces sponsors of post-employment health benefit plans to consider how to manage the volatility that changes in medical care inflation create in the other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability. By choosing carefully how the nominal discount rate used for the liability is decomposed into real rates and inflation, I illustrate that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate. The implication is that an effective immunization strategy exists that can eliminate most of the volatility in the OPEB account.

Description: A common approach to estimating the total amount of savings required to fund retirement is to first apply a generic “replacement rate” to pre-retirement income, such as 80%, to get the desired retirement income need. That need is then assumed to increase annually at the rate of inflation for the duration of retirement, which is generally assumed to be some fixed period, such as 30 years. Using government data along with a fairly simple market and mortality model, we explore these assumptions to more accurately estimate the true cost of retirement

Description: This paper presents an approach to analyzing continuing care retirement community [CCRC] data, and demonstrates the methods using data from a large CCRC. It is assumed that residents make transitions among a number of states that represent the levels of care required by residents. There is randomness associated with both the transition times and the states entered at these times. The model is conveniently characterized in terms of transition intensity functions, which represent the instantaneous rates of transition between pairs of states.

Description: This paper employs a static-component projection methodology as a first step in a more complex research agenda focusing on developing detailed population projections in which mortality, disability, and disease are represented as linked phenomena with changes in any one impacting the other two. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: This paper talks about shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution plans and the risk involved.

Description: This paper establishes a framework to analyze the volatility of corporate profits as a result of variability in accounting for pension plans. It models a Canadian corporation that maintains a defined-benefit pension plan and that has adequate cash flow to fully fund the pension plan, should it wish. Volatility of corporate profits is important because many senior executives have some component of their compensation directly related to corporate profitability and consequently do not want any surprises with respect to actual profits compared to expected profits. The volatility management techniques considered are investment policies for the pension plan, funding the pension plan, and an alternative plan design. The analysis is timely since changes are proposed to the accounting standards to eliminate most smoothing techniques. The results suggest that, depending on the investment environment, reduced volatility may be accompanied by by enhanced return, which is a result that few would expect.

Description: Investment volatility can lead to unacceptable levels of contribution volatility and wide swings in a retirement plan’s perceived funded status. This paper approaches the volatility problem from a plan design perspective.

Description: This paper focuses on when and how we retire.

Description: Informal discussion of session 1A

Description: This 1975 panel discussion SOA Bal Harbour Annual Meeting addressed the impacts of ERISA other than on pensions.