Description: Certain valuation assumptions are difficult to set with a high degree of accuracy, whether because the underlying experience is in different economic or interest rate environments, in addition to other reasons. Examples include assumptions for long-term care insurance, annuity options, lapsation and premium persistency on ULSG. This session will share how the actuary can use predictive analytics to augment the assumption-setting process. Some of the benefits to the actuary (along with the company and the regulator) include more accurate assumptions with lower margins for adverse deviations. Of possible interest as well is that applications go beyond valuation and include acquisitions, reinsurance and pricing.

Description: Large claims have always been a major source of volatility in health care claims experience. In this session, the presenters will discuss techniques for analyzing large claims, predicting large claims and measuring the associated risk. The presenters will also discuss the early results of the SOA 5/50 research project which will examine the 5% of the population that accounts for 50% of the health care costs.