Description: An overview of the objectives of outbreak modeling, and an examination of the various types of models used both to forecast an uncontrolled outbreak, and to estimate the effects of interventions intended to alter the outbreak’s trajectory

Description: This paper presents a unifying non-Bayesian statistical method for incorporating prior information into the determination of probability distributions and other finite measures and develops the statistical properties of this method together with actuarial applications. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.