Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: This people provides a derivation of continuous and curtate inequalities of life contingent functions and shows how the proofs of the continuous inequalities are of an entirely different nature from the usual proofs for the curtate inequalities Followed by discussion papers submitted by several authors

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Editor's comments which begin Volume 2 of the 1979 ARCH.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that presents preliminary observations with respect to probabilistic fuzzy systems.

Description: The authors have been involved with the development of an economically unbiased model for the distribution of pension benefits in divorce. While the research is not completed, it was felt that some of their findings and insights might be of interest to the actuarial community. In view of this, the purpose of this article is to: 1. Present the findings of the authors with respect to their review of major court cases, and 2. Identify major actuarial issues which are as yet unresolved. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, Vol. 1.

Description: Letter to the editor from Mr. Hilary L. Seal, Lausanne Federal Polytechnic School, appearing in the 1979 ARCH.

Description: This introduction is followed by an overview of RA, which includes such things as the role of RA in ERM, the conceptualization of RA, and the role of FL as it relates to RA. We turn then to an overview of the FL methodology used in this study. The next three chapters are devoted to FL methodology as it relates to RA issues, and includes a discussion of FL modification of the risk matrix, FL modification of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the role of fuzzy optimization as it relates to RA. We turn then to examples of RAA-FL in the areas of operational risk, hazard risk, financial risk and strategic risk. This is followed by closing comments and observations. The study concludes with an annotated bibliography.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: In December 1997, the Society of Actuaries held a conference whose focus was actuarial and financial modeling. During the course of that conference, one of the speakers mentioned a number of technologies his firm was using for modeling, which were either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to some of the audience. The purpose of this paper is to define each of the technologies mentioned during that presentation and to briefly describe their distinguishing characteristics. The technologies discussed in this paper are statistical pattern recognition [SPR], neural networks [NNs], genetic algorithms [GAs], simulated annealing, fractal analysis, chaos theory, rule induction, data fusion algorithms [DFAs], data compression, fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning, and expert systems.