Description: This paper describes a theory of long-term interest-rate trends that was propounded in 1899 by an actuary, Charlton T. Lewis. The paper then presents a preliminary examination of how well that theory stands up in the light of 20th-century experience. The purpose is to invite more thorough evaluation by any experts who find the theory possibly useful.

Description: The author describes a theory of long-term interest-rate trends, originally propounded in 1899 by actuary Charlton T. Lewis, and how well the theory stands up in light of 20th century experience.