Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: This article speculates on the presence and magnitude of the benefits attributable to regular rebalancing of one's investment portfolio. It surveys the extant literature, discusses certain implications, and presents conclusions.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: “DeFi,” or decentralized finance, is an emerging financial system built on blockchains without central intermediaries such as banks. Defi has experienced explosive growth in the last couple of years, with billions of capital locked in numerous DeFi protocols on blockchains. However, DeFi is still relatively unknown outside of the cryptocurrency/blockchain sphere. Established actuarial practice areas such as insurance, employee benefits, banking, and investments all contain DeFi application opportunities for those interested in exploring them. This article aims to provide an introduction to DeFi concepts with a few practical tips.

Description: A review of changes in the last two years with respect to investing, geopolitical risks and the markets.

Description: The paper demonstrates that the most popular rationalization for evolving glide paths is flawed and should be discarded. The paper also demonstrates that glide paths should generally evolve for investors that endeavor to optimize outcomes and reevaluate their portfolios regularly.

Description: This article discusses the possibility of high inflation down the road. The high levels of debt incurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be difficult for many countries to support. Central bank activity is "standing in the gap" but this is not necessarily the optimal solution. Inflation can also become an issue due to contagion coming from less financially stable countries, resulting a crisis of confidence, driving up interest rates.

Description: This is the second part of a 2 part series on Real options analysis (ROA). This article looks into the limitations of using financial option theory when doing real options analysis with projects that are long-dated and uncertain, such as: 1. First-degree homogeneity, 2. Uncertainty must derive from Brownian motion, and 3. Risk neutrality.