Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.

Description: The artcle looks at the most important features necessary to conduct a meaningful quantitative analysis. The article also discusses how predictive analytics should be used as a tactic to anwer question and not an end in of itself.

Description: The article is Part 1 of two articles that provide a case study for the development of a profitability and risk dashboard. The sample dashboard provides distilled information regarding actual to expected (A/E) ratios for key risks, agent quality scores and customer value scores. The dashboard would also provide the value of new business written, surplus strain, debit balances, and expected losses on debit balances at different levels, down to the agent level. A product mix index is provided, together with visual comparisons of key metrics to the company's business plan. The Part 2 article will add information to the dashboard regarding risk margins, target capital, and company value.

Description: Reflections on SOA delphi study released Oct 2005

Description: Actuaries provide special subject matter expertise to question (or validate) the results of data analytics models. Other quants often cannot do this.

Description: It is about using actuarial judgement to validate the predictive model.

Description: Discussion about the need for, and approach to, measuring organizational expertise ton ensure the learning investment is resulting in expertise growth.