Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: This article gives a brief overview of ways to extend clustering analysis beyond basic methods such a k-means

Description: Description of methods for extracting and reformatting the existing mortality tables using R. Methods and formats for storage are discussed in the second article. Intent is to generate discussion regarding the format of our stored mortality tables. Value is in the demonstration of task automation in R and in the reduction of duplicate work across companies related to reformatting tables.

Description: Our firm has developed the first publicly available insured lives mortality table for Cambodia using data science methods. This essay provides a brief background, our approach and the impact of our work.

Description: Feature article describing how exponential technologies will affect the actuarial profession.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Principal component analysis is an unsupervised linear transformation mainly used for dimension reduction. Determine key numerical variables with maximum variances in a dataset, identify the correlation and removal of redundant variables are the key aspects of this exploratory data analysis.