Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: This paper describes a theory of long-term interest-rate trends that was propounded in 1899 by an actuary, Charlton T. Lewis. The paper then presents a preliminary examination of how well that theory stands up in the light of 20th-century experience. The purpose is to invite more thorough evaluation by any experts who find the theory possibly useful.

Description: This is the User's Guide that accompanies the Inflation Generator Excel spreadsheet which is associated with the research report entitled 'The Effect of Deflation or High Inflation on the Insurance Industry.'

Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: This paper discusses contracts sold by states which promised to provide tuition in the future for a fixed price. Because these contracts provide a benefit whose dollar value is uncertain at the time of sale, these contracts contain significant risks to the states and create a challenge to the actuaries who opine on the adequacy of the trust funds to provide the benefits promised by these contracts. This article discusses some of the implications of the method used by the major states to project tuition inflation and explores other possible methods. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: To expand our understanding of the theory of behavioral economics and its application to life and health insurance policyholder and annuitant behavior, the Society of Actuaries' Committee on Knowledge Extension Research, Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Financial Reporting Section issued a call for papers, inviting actuaries, academics, economists, psychologists, sociologists, researchers and other professionals to explore this topic from a variety of perspectives.

Description: This is an Excel 2003 spreadsheet that accompanies the research report entitled 'The Effect of Deflation or High Inflation on the Insurance Industry.' It models scholastically the effects of inflation and deflation.

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2004, Vol. 1.

Description: This paper defines a concept of equivalence for profit standards. The central principle advanced is that the company should set prices on all its products to produce marginal profits that are equal in proportion to the products' marginal use of surplus. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.