Description: Regime switching models have become a popular tool in econometric time series modeling since their introduction in Hamilton [1989].These models have been widely applied for equity-returns for investment guarantees. A prominent risk management challenge is hedging these guarantees, given the equity regime switching process. This presentation develops some methodologies for regime-switching portfolio replication and use real world data to demonstrate and evaluate their effects. A Bayesian approach for regime switching model fitting is used, which allows for the examination of the robustness of each of the optimization methods when parameter uncertainty is present.

Description: Read the December 2016 issue of The Modeling Platform published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.