Description: This presentation, session number 83CS at the 1999 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held June 16-18 in Seattle, is a preview of an actual Course 7. The presenters, two experienced researchers, lead the discussion and a demonstration of a case study from the modeling Course 7. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.

Description: Presented at May 2005 Spring Meeting. Panelists discuss strategies for increased modeling speed as risk management, valuation and product development activities have been requiring increasingly complex financial models.

Description: This discussion examines the relationship of Operations Research to the actuarial profession, the extent traditional actuarial work can be regarded as Operations Research, types of life insurance company problems lending themselves to Operations Research study, and the relationship of electronic data processing field to Operations Research.

Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, Canada. Fuzzy set theory is incorporated into times series analysis, giving fuzzy parameter estimates of models such as ARMA and GARCH. Examples are given, including returns on a stock and option valuation.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 38TS, from the 1999 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 23-24 in Los Angeles. The instructors provide an introduction into how complex adaptive systems [CAS] can be applied to solve actuarial problems. They provide a general overview of CAS, including genetic algorithms, neural network, nonlinear modeling, and agent-based modeling, provide recent examples of applications to business problems, and discuss how CAS approaches can be used to address actuarial pricing and valuation issues, such as modeling customer behavior. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: This is a presentation from the Actuarial Research Conference in August 2006 in Montreal. It is on Bayesian Inference Resistant to Outliers. Presented by Alain Desgagne.

Description: This presentation introduces the Threshold Life Table as a solution to the problem of modeling mortality for extreme ages. This method is based on extreme value theory, and it avoids the need to extrapolate beyond an arbitrary age. This method produces an omega, the highest attainable age, without it being chosen arbitrarily.

Description: This 1979 session is about recent advances in Prediction Theory. Topics included: 1. Statistical methods to predict path properties of a Time Series. 2. How and to what extent Box-Jenkins Time Series methods can be modified to predict two or more time series simultaneously. 3. Workable techniques that are already being successfully used in practice.

Description: Presentation discussing modeling of daily and hourly rainfall, both occurrence and amount. These distributions would be needed to price derivative or insurance contracts involving rainfall amounts.