Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: First article in a series that walks through the progression from developing LTC assumptions using traditional methods to doing so using predictive analytics.

Description: Third article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: An approach to quantify medical intervention savings when medical claims data is not available by leveraging overlapping measurement techniques.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Reviewing a text covering multiple statistical modeling topics: e.g., generalized linear models, decision trees, clustering, using the statistical language R.

Description: Second article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: An introduction of predictive modeling techniques that are applicable to insurance industry, including generalized linear model (GLM) and classification and regression tree model(CART). Other models such as data clustering, neural network, and support vector machine (SVM), are also briefly discussed.