Description: A book review by Scott McInturff of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't authored by Nate Silver.

Description: In our rapidly changing world, it is becoming hopeless to try to arrive at a satisfying description of future conditions, even in the short run. Yet prices for new life insurance must somehow reflect one’s view of events even in the far distant future. futurism

Description: Panelists discuss the methods HMOs employ to measure their providers' quality of care, outcomes, compliance with best practice guidelines, and cost control. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.

Description: Results of survey, conducted recently by the Taxation Section of the Society of Actuaries, on how federal income tax is reflected in the projection work being performed.

Description: Presenter offers ways in which actuaries might set credibility levels to be used by underwriters to set group health insurance expected benefits. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 2.

Description: Although rate structures where low-cost cohorts subsidize high cost cohorts may be justified from a actuarial, marketing, or legal standpoint, the subsidization creates risks which must be understood and monitored. This article presents the concept of subsidization signature to measure and interpret the effects of rate subsidization, and to assess the sustainability of rating structures and the sensitivity of business mix assumptions.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: Discussion of the separate and joint effects of obesity and diabetes on disability and mortality, and ways these effects can be used to improved insurance pricing and reserving, reverse the increasing rates of obesity and diabetes, and improve current projections of disability and mortality risks.