Description: Reviews basic desirable features in an economic scenario generator. Discusses basics of model structure and validation process

Description: Introduction to option pricing using Black-Scholes. Discussion on the limitations of Black-Scholes and of its alternatives such as Heston. Clear, accessible explanation of key results of mathematical finance including risk-neutral valuation.

Description: Feature article describing the use of arithmetic means in the production of return results predictions.

Description: Uses Blackrock's macroeconomic and style factors in asset allocation examples for an insurance portfolio and a pension portfolio.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.

Description: Argues public plans should only hold bonds, on the basis of tax and finance arguments.

Description: Introduction to option pricing, with special attention to issues in applying these tools to price equity-linked insurance products. Clear, accessible explanation of key results of mathematical finance including risk-neutral valuation.

Description: Decomposes guaranteed minimum maturity benefit option into a basket of components, and values each component with both a Black-Scholes model and a regime-switching GARCH model. Performs sensitivity analysis on dynamic lapse assumption.

Description: Feature article discussing whether or not genetic algorithms can be used by actuaries.

Description: Part one of a two-part article, to be contined in Feb 2014. Provides useful rules of thumb for breaking out investment return into components of periodic arithmetic return, geometric return, the volatility of returns and the correlation of returns by asset class. Develops and relates these axiomatic concepts into rules of thumb for estimating quantiles of a range of stochastic returns.