Description: There are early indications of a six year cycle in ACA markets reminiscent of the traditional underwriting cycle.

Description: The article describes the insurance industry's preparation for pandemic events and the public finance response.

Description: The evolving specialty pharmacy environment has created difficulties for actuaries pricing and forecasting pharmacy coverage. Unpredictable specialty pharmacy trends have increased insurers' earnings volatility and affected members' health care affordability. The presenters will highlight the current specialty drug development pipeline and explore specialty pharmacy drug trend management strategies. They will also provide concepts to help manage the coming wave of gene and cell therapies.

Description: HIV is still a big public health concern, but there are therapies available to prevent infection before and immediately after exposure. As legislatures and the USPSTF considers adding these therapies to the list of preventive care covered without cost share, actuaries will need to estimate the impact on their care cost. The presenters will share an actuarial tool kit to estimate the impact of covering PrEP and PEP for different populations. Examples are provided and discussion is welcome.

Description: MHPAEA prohibits health plans from imposing financial requirements or treatment limitations on behavioral health benefits that are more restrictive than those applied to medical and surgical benefits. MHPAEA's regulations define treatment limitations to include nonquantitative treatment limitations (NQTLs), which are benefit design features that are not numerical, but otherwise limit the scope or duration of benefits.

Description: The article provides insights about the need for revolutionary actuaries in Saudi Arabia due to the reform that is happening across the kingdom under all sectors. Then I talk briefly about the health sector and the transformation that is happing in the sector, and how qualified health actuaries can contribute to this health reform.

Description: Presenters will address optimal new business written premium mix at the firm and state levels under varying competitive conditions. They will explore the use of mean-variance optimization to determine a company's optimal new business written premium mix for a given geographical area, predicting statewide product mixes using varying rate regulation scenarios, involving profit caps and measuring/testing a market's competitiveness for a given line of business. The scope of the ideas to be presented is international, applying to property, liability, individual and group life; individual and group health; disability and accidental insurance. Examples will be presented for general insurance in the United States

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: This article provides an overview of behavioral economic theory as it relates to health and welfare insurance plans and provides summaries of two sample applications of the theories: enrollment in health insurance exchanges created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and product design considerations in light of vast health illiteracy.

Description: This report examines lapse experience on individual disability income insurance products by various policyholder and product factors. The study can be used for industry benchmarking as well as for background information for product development and planning purposes.