Description: This article reviews the sixth survey of Emerging Risks, sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section and completed in fall 2012.

Description: Finding appealing return on equity for low margin or high risk weighted asset business by dealers has been challenging. Because of this, trading assets have fallen substantially especially in rates and corporate trading books. Smaller books suggest challenged liquidity as balance sheets become less elastic.

Description: Increasing uncertainties and volatility in financial as well as real goods markets increasingly reveal that controlling systems based on deterministic and pseudo-exact values are insufficiently eligible to manage the business activities. This raises the question how management systems can be modified to generate the adequate management impulses in volatile periods. Risk management deals from identifying, evaluating and aggregating chances and risks, which again determine the potential fluctuation range of relevant performance indicators. Everyday corporate life shows that risk management is considered important; but the corresponding processes to identify, evaluate and report chances and risks are seldom part of established decision criteria. This “paradox” lets assume that risks are managed in various differing and unsystematic ways. The combination of traditional controlling methods and risk management is not primarily a methodological challenge. The behavior of the whole organization, practiced over a long-year period, has to be transferred into a new corporate culture of transparent dealing with chances and risks. This paper describes the necessary change management process, which has to come along with necessary methodological modifications.

Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: There are two major categories of risks that are unique in international business- currency exchange rate risk and country risk. Currency exchange rate risk includes transaction exposure, translation exposure, and economic exposure. Country risk contains political risk and economic risk. There are a few different methods to hedge currency exchange rate risk and country risk also discussed in the article. Before you decide to invest in a certain country’s market, ensure you understand the currency exchange rate and political risks associated with the investment by performing due diligence on the country’s economic, political and cultural condition.

Description: The five words for ERM are transparency, discipline, alignment, adaptability and resilience. This article focuses on transparency, discipline and resilience.

Description: he co-editors introduce themselves and preview the articles in this issue.

Description: Risk management and capital budgeting are two critical components of the corporate decision process. They often need to be considered jointly at the corporate level because of their natural interaction through the dependent risk exposures and other synergetic relationships within an intricate corporate structure in a dynamic business environment. . This paper develops an integrated framework that aligns these two important corporate strategies across business divisions to optimize the streamlined enterprise strategic goal in a multi-period setting. The proposed integrated framework can serve as a practical guideline for corporate executives to optimally coordinate capital budgeting and risk management at the enterprise level.

Description: Most reasonable risk mitigation strategies provide benefit in some circumstances, but come at a cost that adversely affects results in other scenarios. A research paper by the authors considers the view of multiple stakeholders to answer this question, resulting in a process they call Trifurcation.

Description: This article introduces the Goals-Progress-Strategy (GPS) approach to Strategic Risk Management (SRM).