Description: Summary of SOA research report "Optimizing Risk Retention" which applies parametric survival models and Monte Carlo simulation to a block of term life business.

Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, Canada. Fuzzy set theory is incorporated into times series analysis, giving fuzzy parameter estimates of models such as ARMA and GARCH. Examples are given, including returns on a stock and option valuation.

Description: This article summarizes a method for measuring the credibility of a prediction from a logistic generalized linear model (GLM).

Description: This paper presents the general notion of a periodogram, following Elphinstone's approach. The paper then goes on to examine symmetric linear operators and their periodograms in preparation for the end discussion of periodograms of graduators.

Description: This discussion examines the relationship of Operations Research to the actuarial profession, the extent traditional actuarial work can be regarded as Operations Research, types of life insurance company problems lending themselves to Operations Research study, and the relationship of electronic data processing field to Operations Research.

Description: Presented at May 2005 Spring Meeting. Panelists discuss strategies for increased modeling speed as risk management, valuation and product development activities have been requiring increasingly complex financial models.

Description: This presentation, session number 83CS at the 1999 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held June 16-18 in Seattle, is a preview of an actual Course 7. The presenters, two experienced researchers, lead the discussion and a demonstration of a case study from the modeling Course 7. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.