Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: The article contemplates whether there is heightened sensitivity towards how investment activity is portrayed and described.

Description: The article discusses how well the GDP Gross Domestic Product reflects the true state of the economy. It also describes the process of calculating the GDP advance estimate, preliminary estimate and then final estimate.

Description: Projecting Budget Surpluses by Carl E. Walsh from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, April 2000, Issue No. 34. Discussion of the difficulties involved in making projections U.S. budget surpluses or deficits and how assumptions change.

Description: In insurance companies and pension plans currency risk arises when a company has future obligations in one currency and investments in another currency. The question that is often asked is whether this currency risk should hedged or not.