Description: The Society of Actuaries Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is pleased to release this report examining how well people estimate their own life expectancy.

Description: The presenters will highlight differences in mortality that result from socioeconomic issues. Topics will include the differences in cause-specific mortality among different socioeconomic classes, trends in these gaps over time, and recommendations for reducing inequalities in life expectancy in the future.

Description: The session offers high-level initial steps to get started using R, as well as a list of helpful resources for both general data science and actuarial science with R. Attendees will learn about popular R packages to perform practical tasks such as importing, transforming and visualizing data, as well as packages commonly used by actuaries. You will also be introduced to the markdown package for creating reproducible and reusable analyses and workflows. By the end of the session, you will be familiar enough with using R and RStudio to begin incorporating these tools in your day-to-day work as an actuary

Description: Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact of life that many insurers could be overlooking at their peril without a framework for assessing it. The article provides a framework to understand the prediction uncertainty, which can be critical for the insurance operations using predictive models. Coin toss example explains model uncertainty and randomness inherent in making predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian methodology can be used to develop the prediction uncertainty. In particular, the article shows that the Bayesian framework is a way to combine historical data and actuarial judgment, and directly address the model uncertainty through its posterior distribution.

Description: A data format for mortality tables along with applications.

Description: A document summarizing key observations on historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018.

Description: The presenters will address innovations in health and wellness designed to mitigate and/or manage mortality risk. The presenters will briefly review the latest research on the leading causes of death and share ways that life insurers and insurtech partnerships are using technology, customer engagement and scientific advances to enhance/extend the lives of policyholders. The presenters will draw from industry research and reinsurer studies and from the latest initiatives in health and wellness innovations.

Description: An application of GLM trees to mortality modeling using the Individual Life Experience Committee 2009-2015 dataset. GLM trees are a hybrid of GLMs and decision trees which are analogous to the way actuaries have analyzed data. The major benefits include speeding up actuarial analytic workflows, improving data understanding, and improving data visualization.

Description: The presenters will explore the current state of the North American mortality baseline and long-term improvement assumptions and determine what we can learn from the UK's approach. They will share research done by the Society of Actuaries and other organizations to describe how to build a better model, plus show the impact socio-economics and other factors have on longevity expectations. The presenters will offer suggestions for how U.S. and Canadian pension plan and insurance actuaries--and the industry itself--can best use this research to develop a better model for the risk management of pension plans and group annuities

Description: The presenters will cover the latest research undertaken by the Individual Life Experience Committee (ILEC). With several years of very robust individual life insurance experience data accumulated through the mandatory Statistical Agent data calls, this vast amount of data allows for various deeper dives into specific segments of business, such as large face amount, older age or juvenile. Speakers will cover studies the committee is currently involved in, future planned efforts, and results from a variety of sub-segments of business. Attendees will learn about emerging statistical techniques in scrubbing data, more refined quintile-grouped data segments, and interesting ways of conceptualizing how A/E results have changed from year to year. There will be something for everyone!