Description: Global financial crises like the one recently experienced, affected both large and small institutions.Today, when there is heightened need for enhanced risk management tools, some entities are unable to employ sophisticated mechanisms due to limited data availability. Moreover, from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s point of view via Basel II and Basel III, the internal ratings- based (IRB) approach requires that institutions have some reliable estimates of default probabilities of default for each rating grade. Taking the work of previous researches a step further, this paper intends to propose a new dynamic mechanism to for the risk management industry for to calculateing probabilities of default (PD). Through these estimates for the core model, we generate implied probability of default (PD) through actuarial estimation tools and different probability distributions. This mechanism is specialized to work best for low- defa ult portfolios (LDPs). Furthermore, scenario testing is adopted to validate the model against any model- specific bias

Description: A common approach to estimating the total amount of savings required to fund retirement is to first apply a generic “replacement rate” to pre-retirement income, such as 80%, to get the desired retirement income need. That need is then assumed to increase annually at the rate of inflation for the duration of retirement, which is generally assumed to be some fixed period, such as 30 years. Using government data along with a fairly simple market and mortality model, we explore these assumptions to more accurately estimate the true cost of retirement

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: Does disease management DM positively influence health care costs? According to three prestigious sources, the answer is no. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: Complete listing of the tables used in the study to analyze the research data. From Group Medical Insurance Large Claims Database Collection and Analysis, M-HB97-1.

Description: The adoption of FAS 158 forces sponsors of post-employment health benefit plans to consider how to manage the volatility that changes in medical care inflation create in the other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability. By choosing carefully how the nominal discount rate used for the liability is decomposed into real rates and inflation, I illustrate that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate. The implication is that an effective immunization strategy exists that can eliminate most of the volatility in the OPEB account.

Description: A summary of potential future software-induced changes to the insurance industry, with a particular emphasis on machine vision technologies.

Description: An ongoing discussion of the theoretically correct discount rate for valuing insurance liabilities: whether or not the credit rating of the insurer should affect the discount rate used. See related articles including the article “On the Fair Value of Insurance Liabilities: The Regulator’s Option” in the December, 2005 issue of The Financial Reporter.

Description: What are the possible future implications to insurance companies of significant improvements in mortality? How can futurism techniques be used in research? The formation of the mortality improvement study group at the Principal Financial Group was the first step toward examining the issue of mortality improvement. In an interactive format, we will present what we learned about mortality and futurism techniques by participating in this group.

Description: The Chairperson addresses the readers.