Description: This is the fourth paper on n-year roll forward reserve financing of public benefit systems, especially Old-Age, Survivors and disability Insurance OASDI, prepared by University of Michigan faculty and students. As the papers have developed, some ideas have been simplified, while others have become more complex. It is concluded that the theoretical model requires further attention. This research can be extended to expand our knowledge of OASDI financing and the applicability of n-year roll forward reserve financing.

Description: These are the abstract, outline, graphs and tables of the paper “Conclusions from Michigan Studies of Social Security Financing”. By such studies we mean the papers prepared during the past five years by actuarial students and Cecil Nesbitt, and which have appeared in ARCH. The paper is in three parts: A lengthy Abstract, followed by 17 pages of text, graphs, tables and references. The third part is a 10 page Appendix which gives the proofs of text statements.

Description: Panel discusses the effects of reduced payment levels to many Medicare managed care organizations. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 2.

Description: ongoing discussion of the proper interest rate to use in discounting liability cash flows to reflect credit risk of the insurer in a fair value accounting system

Description: Presenter describes many of the desirable characteristics of a health care financing system, and alternative health care financing systems as they are found in other parts of the world. The advantages and disadvantages of each alternative system are also discussed. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 2.

Description: Panelists discuss the methods HMOs employ to measure their providers' quality of care, outcomes, compliance with best practice guidelines, and cost control. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This paper argues that no single valuation basis is completely reliable: neither market price nor other alternatives can accurately measure value. Therefore, this paper proposes that a preferable solution is to simultaneously record two bases of valuation: market price and appraisal value. Thus by expanding the dimensionality of financial reporting, one can provide a broader, richer and more accurate measurement of value. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society CAS and the Society of Actuaries SOA, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research.

Description: Discussion regarding who's to blame for cost increase, Government's role to ensure coverage and keep costs down, steps to control costs, plan design changes. Issue No. 47.