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Edition

Watch out, Batman—it’s The Actuary!

By Mary Pat Campbell

The Stepping Stone, September 2021

ss-2021-09-campbell-hero.jpg

Let me tell you about the little-known Batman villain, The Actuary.

I’m not much for comic books (now), but this particular Batman story from Detective Comics issues 683 and 684, published in 1995, cracks me up every time I reread it. I’m going to spoil the entire story line, so you have been warned. I will be describing some of the comic panels below.[1]

The Actuary Discovered by Penguin

Chronic Batman villain Penguin catches The Actuary cleaning up at his casinos. We first see this character sitting with Penguin at the table, wearing a gray suit jacket and wire-rimmed glasses. The Actuary had been counting cards, which is the only (legal) way to beat a casino.

  • The Actuary: I can apply my formulas to almost anything. I used to use my talents for an insurance company. But it grew boring …
  •  
  • Penguin: Normally I would have Vince and Rocco take a counter to a meat plant I have an interest in. By the next morning they would be served with eggs and toast in diners across Gotham.[2]

By the way, many gambling actuaries have done quite well at poker, whether with or without card counting (I’ve never asked). In general, they play against other poker players, not the house.

Penguin listens to The Actuary, who has some profound insight that will be useful to him.

  • Penguin: Well, it turns out I’ve more interesting fish to fry, and it concerns our Batty Buddy. Nico, McQuade, meet The Actuary. That’s the only name he’ll give me.
  •  
  • The Actuary: Confidentiality is important to me.

Client confidentiality is an important part of actuarial ethics, but don’t forget Precept 4 in the U.S. Code of Professional Conduct![3] The responsible actuary should identify him or herself in their actuarial reports.

This extra perceptive actuary tells Penguin: Batman foils criminals ONLY AT NIGHT!

Using this key observation, The Actuary recommends Penguin do a hit at a big gardening expo in the middle of the day. Supposedly, many rich people will be attending this expo, so the picking should be rich, given Batman won’t be there to stop them!

The Analysis Goes Wrong

What could go wrong?

Did I mention this expo isn’t taking place outside, but inside a giant domed area?

Can you guess what happens?

Batman not only gets the dome to close to provide the required dark, but also sets off the sprinkler system. So, it’s dark and rainy while Batman nabs the Penguin’s henchmen. Day saved again by Batman!

Penguin is not too pleased with his consultant’s results. So, he pulls out a pistol and says:

  • Penguin: A wise man once said there are three kinds of lies. Lies. Damn lies. And statistics.
  • The Actuary: I can explain, Penguin. I was working with flawed data and …

Oh, poor actuary. He forgot ASOP 23: Data Quality. Let us look at the some of the advice there, from subsection 3.4, “Use of data,” part e:

  • “if, in the actuary’s professional judgment, the data are so inadequate that the data cannot be used to satisfy the purpose of the assignment, then the actuary should 1) obtain different data, 2) complete, with the consent of the principal, any parts of the assignment for which the actuary determines the data are suitable, or 3) decline to complete the assignment.”[4]

We’ve probably all been at the end of a gun when confronted about work that did not turn out well, but it’s usually a figurative, not literal, gun.

Interestingly, Penguin himself doesn’t get nabbed for the heist, but The Actuary does, getting sent to Blackgate Penitentiary.

Criminal consultancy doesn’t pay.

Over-explaining the Joke

Obviously, the authors for this two-issue story were ragging on the usual Batman milieu: dark, stormy cityscapes. Since the publication of Frank Miller’s vision of Batman in The Dark Knight Returns (1986), and then the 1989 Tim Burton film, dark, brooding Batman was the preferred vision of the caped crusader.

By 1995, the comic book authors (who, obviously, weren’t Frank Miller), were a bit tired of the same old thing. Of course, those dark, rainy nights were perfect for Batman to pose against, and, after all, there are downsides to daylight capers: more people to interfere with a heist and it’s easier for people to recognize the culprits.[5] It’s still fairly solid analysis.

While the primary targets for the joke plot are fellow comic book authors, it’s pretty obvious the authors knew at least one actuary. Or, at least, somebody who had worked with actuaries and was frustrated by their uncanny ability to predict the past.

Of course, The Actuary did happen to be correct about one thing: Batman did strike at the bad guys in the dark.

So, his analysis was correct, but ultimately not useful. Man, the saga of the actuary. We gotta do better.

Just to dump a serious observation into something that is quite silly: since the beginning of 2020, many of us have found ourselves confronted with completely new situations, and finding that some implicit assumptions we were making were incorrect. My own assumption shown to be wrong was that mortality and macroeconomics were not correlated, even in a crisis.[6]

Having the reputation of telling completely true, but out-of-date, analysis is not exactly great.

I’m sure the comic book authors did not set out to teach us this lesson:

When one considers using predictive models, think about limitations in the training data. One may need to supplement the model.

Still, it could have helped The Actuary.

Also: don’t try to partner with Penguin. It will not end well.

Statements of fact and opinions expressed herein are those of the individual authors and are not necessarily those of the Society of Actuaries, the newsletter editors, or the respective authors’ employers.

Mary Pat Campbell, FSA, MAAA, is vice president, Insurance Research, for Conning in Hartford, Conn. She can be contacted at marypat.campbell@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marypatcampbell/

Endnotes

[1] The original comic panels can be seen on my blog post dated Dec. 29, 2020: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/fifth-day-of-christmas-2020-five

[2] These block quotes are from the comic issues, with emphasis in the original.

[3] “Annotation 4-1: An Actuary who issues an Actuarial Communication shall ensure that the Actuarial Communication clearly identifies the Actuary as being responsible for it.” https://www.actuary.org/sites/default/files/files/code_of_conduct.8_1.pdf, accessed July 26, 2021.

[4] https://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/asop023_185.pdf, accessed July 26, 2021. Emphasis added.

[5] I am discounting Batman’s worry of being found out to be Bruce Wayne. In a comic book world where glasses hide Clark Kent, I think the guy with the facemask can probably hide his identity in bright light. Even if the people of Gotham are more observant than Metropolitans.

[6] On the other hand, I knew that interest rates could get lower. So, yay me.