U.S. Older Age Mortality Trends
Background and Purpose
The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) is interested in examining U.S. older age mortality trends for at least the general, individual life and individual annuity populations. The purpose of the research is to create a resource for actuaries and others in developing mortality assumptions and further SOA Research Institute work in this area such as the 2022 Individual Life Experience Committee report.
Research Objective
The MLPSC is seeking researcher(s) to analyze mortality trends of individuals aged 70 and over, preferably to age 120 for at least three U.S. populations: the general, individually issued life insurance, and individually issued annuities. For each population the researcher(s) will investigate how the trends have changed over time and identify similarities and differences in the trends among the three populations. The time period of most interest is 2000 to current. The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:
- Existing literature and data sources for older age mortality trends
- How trends vary by risk factors (e.g., by age, sex, race, socioeconomic, geographic factors, insured risk classes, smoker status, etc.) and how this varies over time.
- How trends vary by life insurance product/annuity type and policy/annuity size and how it varies over time
- How trends vary by duration from life insurance policy/annuity issue
- How trends might change in the future given COVID-19 pandemic or other factors.
- Drivers of the past and future mortality trends.
While the focus of the study is on three U.S. populations: the general, individually issued life insurance, and individually issued annuities, comparison of older aged mortality trends for these three populations to other U.S. insured and pension populations may also be addressed.
Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched. The specific project, research methods, and presentation of results are intentionally undefined in this RFP, with the hope that unique and valuable approaches will be proposed.
Researcher(s) will incorporate the findings of the analysis and study into a report to be made available on the Society of Actuaries (SOA) website.
Proposal Requirements
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, possible limitations of the analysis, and how the proposed study adds to the existing body of work/knowledge in this area.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix) - A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The MLPSC is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
Selection Process
The MLPSC has appointed a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-ML@soa.org.
Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by January 31, 2024 to Research-ML@soa.org.
Submission of Proposal
Please email your proposal to Research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than February 9, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of February 2024.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher(s).
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute] may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.
Conflict of Interest
You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.
Appendix
The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.
All Contracted Projects
This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.
Literature Reviews
This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.
Surveys
This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.