Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic


Robert Richardson, ASA, PhD
Brian Hartman, ASA, PhD


The Society of Actuaries Research Institute, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association and the Casualty Actuarial Society are pleased to present a report examining how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the auto insurance industry. In this report we will examine the effects of the pandemic on auto losses using dynamic linear models. We examine which predictors best describe the trends, and the impact the pandemic has on predicted future claims.


Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic

Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic Appendix


GIP125-Auto-Loss-Cost-Reports GitHub Repository


Research Insights - Examining Auto Loss Trends through the COVID Pandemic.

Data Visualization


The researchers’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the Project Oversight Group for their diligent work overseeing, reviewing, and editing this report for accuracy and relevance.

Project Oversight Group members:

David R. Clark, FCAS, MAAA
Newton Jennings, FCAS, MAAA
Thomas G. Myers, FCAS, MAAA
Norman Niami FCAS, MAAA, Affiliate IFoA
Robert C. Passmore, CPCU

At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:

Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA – Managing Director of Research
Rob Montgomery, ASA, MAAA, FLMI, Consultant – Research Project Manager

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