Description: This paper presents an approach in which a defective renewal equation is solved in terms of a related compound geometric distribution. The advantage of this approach is discussed. The authors then apply this approach to a defective renewal equation which involves the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the total deficit at the time of ruin. They show how to compute the moments of the time of ruin as well as the joint distribution of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at the time of ruin. Two important cases in terms of claim size distributions are considered in detail. First, the authors consider exponential claim size distributions. They then consider a combination of two exponentials. The moments of the time of ruin are given in both cases.

Description: The results obtained during the last one-third of the research project and the project at whole are presented. The report only contains brief descriptions of the results which are placed in addendums and which are in reality copies of papers and a chapter of a book submitted for publication. Some theoretical and applied problems induced by the research are discussed.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: The academy generator is widely applied in actuarial practice. Initially confined to regulatory reserving, companies are increasingly using the AAA/SOA generator over an ever widening range of applications testing the limits of the academy generator's intended function. The session will give a brief overview of the academy generator and the asset classes it can be used to model. It will also analyze the statistical properties of the academy scenarios and discuss the scenarios relative to standard validation criterion. Some of the challenges that actuaries face in using this framework will be reviewed and options for addressing these challenges will be offered.

Description: Today's actuarial teams dedicate substantial time and resources to maintain strong frameworks for risk management and control. Current practices typically endure this as a sunken cost, yielding minimal value beyond SOX/MAR/COSO compliance and basic error prevention. With a small up-front time investment, and a willingness to approach these activities with an open mind, the functionality of existing compliance activities can be completely transformed. Compliance activities, once a sunken time cost, can be elevated to deliver more insightful analysis to stakeholders.

Description: The cloud inspires awe and fear in equal parts these days. There is a need to learn more, but there’s much information to learn and it may be difficult to know what to learn next. In this session, we’ll carve off a small corner of the cloud and make it your own. Setting up a Data Science Virtual Machine on Digital Ocean will be demonstrated. It’s the fastest way to get a data science development environment setup for your own use. Many of the topics and ideas covered will apply to almost all other cloud offerings. What use cases Digital Ocean is good for, and what use cases you should look elsewhere for, will also be discussed.

Description: This session will cover lessons learned during the course of implementing PBR by the panelists. It will focus on areas that were difficult to interpret, unexpected issues and managing the process. It will focus on potential stumbling blocks from an implementation, pricing and product development standpoint. There will also be an overview of YRT treatment to date and an update on any emerging best practices.

Description: Regulatory change and increased focus on internal risk management are driving a renewed interest in model efficiency. In this session, we will review several new and existing tools, that show significant promise for advanced modeling of equity linked products. These include: • Clustering • Use of unique--and potentially a different number of--scenarios for each policy • Semi Monte Carlo (SMC) – this is a proprietary technique that is similar to a combination of Monte Carlo and numeric integration • Using a neural network approach to optimize some of the more complex and manual aspects of clustering and improve the fit of the clustered model • Combining SMC with the use of unique scenarios per policy

Description: This article discusses the risks of retirement and how those risks impact attaining a secure retirement in a defined contribution world.

Description: This report adds the experience by number of lives for calendar years 1960-64 under group term life insurance policies to that previously reported in the 1960 report and is limited to groups with at least 25 lives. Disability data is also included for premium waiver, extended death benefit, and total and permanent disability clauses which provide for payout of face amount.