Description: Sooner or later a casualty actuary is confronted by the question, Given a history of paid loss amounts by calendar year, what should reserves be? Often, it is not possible to accurately gather and analyze additional data within the time constraints for the reserving decision. The algebraic reserving method presented in this paper offers one approach to rapidly addressing this problem. The paper consists of four sections - General Considerations, Formulas, Examples, and Conclusion.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: One of the first projects undertaken by Claim Analytics was to create a model to predict return to work for group insurance claimants with long term disabilities. This report, sponsored in part by the Society of Actuaries Health Section , is a case study on creating such a model.

Description: A study on stochastic simulation literature as it applies to a health actuary.

Description: Although rate structures where low-cost cohorts subsidize high cost cohorts may be justified from a actuarial, marketing, or legal standpoint, the subsidization creates risks which must be understood and monitored. This article presents the concept of subsidization signature to measure and interpret the effects of rate subsidization, and to assess the sustainability of rating structures and the sensitivity of business mix assumptions.

Description: This is the first year for appointed actuaries in the United States ot review X factors and evaluate actual morality experience that is emerging. This article atempts to provide a simpified explanation of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used by a small company to evaluate its mortality experience.

Description: A contingency table is a set of counts or frequencies obtained by classifying observations in two or more different ways. Log-linear analysis is applied to disability terminations, linking them to variables such as sex, age, region and maximum benefit period. Application to risk classification and underwriting are outlines.

Description: Panel session exploring a variety of issues connected to long-term disability reserve buyouts, including: · Advantages and risks for buyers and sellers · Use of appropriate reserving assumptions · Possible financial structures for a buyout

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.