Description: We consider a class of compound renewal risk process with claim waiting times have a discrete Km distribution. The classical compound binomial risk model is a special case when m = 1. Both recursive and explicit formulas are derived for the expected discounted penalty function due at ruin, for the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Many ruin related quantities can be analyzed through the penalty function, e.g., ruin probability, the p.g.f. of the time of ruin, joint and marginal distributions of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, claim causing ruin, as well as their moments. Detailed discussions are given in two special cases: claim sizes are rationally distributed, or the claim sizes distribution have a finite support.

Description: The author notes “a telescope and a kaleidoscope both provide a view but that is where the similarities end. A telescope shows us an actual view whereas a kaleidoscope creates a view from broken pieces of glass. This article will analyze which analogy is closer to the stochastic modeling of interest rate or stock market projections.”

Description: In this paper, chapter III of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors discuss building a liability model to evaluate the C-3 risk. The article discusses the data and assumptions needed, and the importance of sensitivity testing given that the model results are very sensitive to the assumptions used.

Description: Article Society Seminars by Adams in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: This study note was written to supplement the “Credibility” chapter of Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science as a reading for the fourth CAS/SOA examination. It presents important topics not covered in the Foundations chapter including the Bühlmann-Straub Model and nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of credibility formula parameters.

Description: In this Chapter we present a novel way for estimating aggregated EC figures based on Bayesian copula estimation. Contrary to the classic approach of using a single inter-risk- correlation matrix we derive a probability distribution of possible correlation matrices that enables us to tackle the important issue of parameter uncertainty. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: The Johns Hopkins ACG Team's comments regarding their participation in the Comparative Analysis of Claims-Based Tools for Health Risk Assessment.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper 'A Stochastic Definition of Future Shares'. The traditional definition of actuarial future values and stochastic definition of Ramsay are discussed. A modification of Ramsay's definition is proposed and an application to life insurance reserves is presented.

Description: “Many commentators have suggested that firms need to do stress tests to examine their vulnerability to adverse situations that are not within the data set used to parameterize their risk models. We suggest the adop¬tion of a terminology to describe stress tests and also a meth¬odology that can be adopted by any risk model user to test and communicate a test of the stability of model results.”