Description: This paper presents a statistical methodology based upon information theory, for adjusting mortality tables to obtain exactly some known individual characteristics, while obtaining a table that is as close as possible to a standard one. Followed by a discussion paper submitted

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: An Overview of Stochastic Simulation modeling techniques and usages

Description: From a session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 In this session the panelists discussed the issues related to the actuarial aspects associated with the demutualization process. The issues discussed included: • Developing historical and prospective assumptions • Aligning the models used in the company’s philosophy regarding dividend determination and pricing • Creating experience assumptions when less-than-perfect data exist • Determining who gets what • Complying with actuarial and accounting standards

Description: Report on the topics and speakers at the Actuarial Research Conference and Social Security Benefits, held August 31 through September 2, 1978.

Description: Charts 1-5 to be attached to the 2000 Valuation Actuary session on demutualization issues.

Description: Examination of how mean reserve factors can best be calculated in light of the new accounting reporting requirements for the earnings of stock life insurance companies. Also examines some methods of expense amortization, including the reserve factor method, and also attempt to show an informative comparison of how reported calendar-year earnings can be expected to emerge with statutory mean reserve factors, natural mean reserve factors, and assorted expense amortization methods. Followed by several submitted discussion papers

Description: Exam study notes on credibility theory.

Description: We highlight a new approach leveraging predictive analytics to identify high risk and rising risk opioid users for more effective screening and follow-up care.