Description: This paper describes a new approach of calculating duration by taking a portfolio perspective utilizing the idea of internal rate of return. It is presumed the user has a model for projecting cash flows under different interest rate scenarios and knows the current market value of the portfolio. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Letters to the national association of insurance commissioners life/health actuarial task force regarding the development of the new annuity non-forfeiture law. Letters are addressed to Mr. Howard Kayton, Mr. Allan Roby, and Mr. John Montgomery. Also included is a demonstration of the workings of a two tiered annuity.

Description: Two-dimensional data can be smoothed by minimizing a combination of the sum of weighted absolute deviations from initial estimates and the sums of absolute values of differences in the two directions. This paper discusses the techniques of parametric programming which make it feasible to explore the different results obtained by varying the emphasis given to fit versus smoothness. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: Abstract for the paper which gives a unified approach to modern credibility models by using the theory of estimating functions.

Description: This paper presents a new approach for pricing insurance contracts. The approach is based both on economic and probabilistic arguments. The novel property of this paper is that the pricing argument is based on two factors determining the insurer's expected profit: the first one is the net revenue from selling insurance contracts and the second is the possible loss due to insolvency. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1997 Vol. 1.

Description: In this presentation, the authors develop a stochastic generator for the generation of scenarios of the S & P 500 index, dividend yield, consumer price index, and U.S. Treasury yields. They first create a set of 'stylized facts' for these series. These in-sample statistical models are themselves not suitable for generation of scenarios for decision making, but instead are additional stylized facts that assist in model development. The 'best' statistical model according to standard statistical model selection criteria can easily lead to a model that is highly unsuitable for generation of scenarios for decision making. The authors develop a stochastic generator that is suitable for decision making under uncertainty. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1997, Vol. 1.

Description: The objective of this paper is to present and to apply a numerical method in the calculation of the minimal and maximal ultimate ruin probabilities in two risk models given some moment constraints on the individual claimsize distribution. An application of this optimization problem is to find the extremal lower and upper bounds of the ultimate ruin probabilities given those constraints. The paper considers the classical risk models with constant and variable premiums.

Description: This paper compares percentile estimates of a large number of cash flow testing scenarios, where only a very small number fall in the ruin tail, by parametric and non-parametric methods.

Description: In this paper the author presents an application of Bayesian forecasting methods to the estimation of reserves for outstanding claims. He assumes that the time number of periods it takes for the claims to be completely paid is fixed and known, that payments are made annually and that the development of partial payments follows a stable pay-off pattern. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol 1.