Description: This paper describes risk-factor-dependent multiple decrements and actuarial cost functions as a general compartment model, a discrete time and discrete state stochastic model of morbidity and mortality processes. For large numbers of risk factors, the model is extended to its natural continuous time and state form. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: This paper will investigate the problem in estimating mortality rates using data obtained from insurance company records.

Description: In this paper population mortality rates are used to explore the question of whether a biologically determined maximum age actually exists for the human species. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: In an increasing population the number of persons falls off from age to age more rapidly than does the stationary population of the life table. This can introduce a systematic bias into life table calculations. The first part of the paper describes an iterative procedure to correct for the bias, extends the method to multiple decrement and associated single decrement life tables, and demonstrates the magnitude of the bias involved. The second part of the paper summarizes the results of applying iterative life table techniques to 165 populations which encompass over a century's experience and include countries from all parts of the world. Followed by discussions submitted by several people

Description: Second article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: This note describes a mortality investigation procedure in which the expected mortality applicable to each new policy for a period of about three years after issue is estimated by use of persistency factors. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author notes that in mortality studies the ‘natural’ unit for exposures and deaths is number of lives, but often more insight is gained by use of other weights, such as face amount. In this paper, the author develops a method which, ‘by a combination of exposed to risk formulas, provides a comparatively simple procedure to permit consideration of weights which vary during the observation period.’

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: View the complete issue for the August 2014 Reinsurance News newsletter.