Description: This session is from the 1976 Washington D.C. Meeting and discusses qualitative and quantitative models for forecasting. The session is a general teaching session and not for experts.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that studies the relation between the two basic random events associated with human mortality: birth and death.

Description: Can the aggregate results from a group be used to forecast something as subjective and judgmental as one single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative filtering which is discussed at length in this article.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: Profile of an actuary in a non-traditional actuarial role: focusing on medical cost and analysis, both retrospective and prospective.

Description: This panel discussion considers some of the approaches, techniques and problems in the development of corporate models and assumptions. The pros and cons of buying versus developing models was discussed and the use of deterministic versus stochastic models was addressed as well.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates how to apply a stochastic mortality model in the presence of missing data, using 'multiple imputation'.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper highlights the impact that a change in conditional data would have on a variety of risk assessment models, with specific emphasis on investment forecasting.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This study adapts the idea of regular discount sequence in the bandit problem, and uses it to interpret life expectancy, as well as to develop a model for survival probabilities. Data came from multiple countries.