Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: Presented at September 1995 Valuation Actuary Symposium. This session talks about the tools and methods for asset modeling, particularly mortgages and asset-backed securities.

Description: This article about the science of characterizing and analyzing problems known as 'heuristics'. A particular heuristic useful in solving probability problems is presented.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: The April 2016 Issue of The Modeling Platform

Description: November 2017 issue of The Modeling Platform by the Modeling Section. Practical information for actuaries, trends that impact section, section activities.

Description: An update on the Capital Market Assumptions used for asset allocation maybe useful to actuaries given the parallels with the assumptions an actuary uses to measure plan obligations.

Description: This articles describes some of the industry issues that new-generation risk modeling technologies can address and the emerging technology of simultion as it applies to risk modeling.

Description: Summary of the health section council’s research project to assess the accuracy of commonly used IBNR estimation methods over a wide range of scenarios.