Description: This report presents results from the study undertaken during 1993 and 1994 by the Direct Response Persistency and Mortality Task Force. Direct response product experience is presented for persistency, and mortality for both underwritten and guaranteed issue products.

Description: Learn about key actuarial and analytic tools and methodologies used by commercial health insurance to identify and quantify drivers of healthcare cost and utilization (including wasteful and low-value ones) and risks. Use case scenarios in which these tools and methodologies apply, such as underwriting, reinsurance, medical management for population health and chronic diseases, managed care contracting, insurance market reform, provider payment reform, etc., will also be covered. Experience from the U.S., China and other parts of the world will be shared.

Description: The key tasks of credit risk capital project under CROSS II mainly focus onL(1 )Adjustment of measurement framework; (2) Calibration of risk factors, including both credit spread risk and credit default risk;3)Introduction of concentration risk measurement; (4) Higher requirement on look-through rule.

Description: After the bid process, desk review, rebate reallocation, an “enjoyable” audit, and open enrollment; the Medicare plan year starts. Throughout the year, organizations find it pertinent to get an accurate picture of their Part D liability as reinsurance, LICS (Low Income Cost-Sharing) subsidy, and risk corridors are accrued. Attendees will learn about the basics of Part D accruals, how future accrual amounts are estimated based on patterns in the data, and how bid assumptions versus actual results impact plan sponsor profitability. We will also discuss financial statement treatment of these items. Real-life examples from bids to outcomes will be provided to enhance the discussion. Ultimately, attendees will come away with a deeper understanding how their bid assumptions play out, and how they can use Part D accruals to plan for future bid development.

Description: The minimum distance estimator proposed allows for the selection of the best fitting family member without prior distributional assumptions. It is shown that this estimator is consistent and can be made either robust or asymptotically efficient. Its asymptotic distribution is derived and and illustrated with automobile insurance data. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 Vol. 1

Description: This paper presents a model is which can be used for certain annuities when interest rates and future lifetimes are random. These can be used in determining contingency reserves for possible adverse interest and mortality experience for collections of life annuity contracts. Certain boundary crossing probabilities for the stochastic process component of the model are obtained. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper addresses controversies related to Zillmer Reserves first proposed in the 1860's and discusses how actuaries can learn form these dilemmas and find a review of the controversy useful in more current practice. The paper was presented at the 25th Actuarial Research Conference held at the University of Western Ontario in 1990. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: The authors offer a method for estimating parameters for well-known three-parameter models of force of mortality. The method involves fitting a series of linear regressions, and finding the least-squares estimates of all the parameters by using the Golden Section Search method. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper discusses the numerical stability of Panjer's recursion in computing aggregate claims distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper provides a description of a method that one can use to develop an estimate of accident year incurred losses if the only available data is aggregate paid losses by calendar year for a number of calendar years. An exhibit demonstrating the use of this method follows this description. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.