Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: This article compares three potential approaches to determining new coefficients for health-based risk scoring models: full recalibration, p-value credibility weighting, and penalized ridge regression.

Description: This article describes methodologies for detection and deterrence of Medicare fraud. It also describes the validation of PRIDIT for fraud detection in Medicare.

Description: This session presents a summary of actuarial and potential uses of stochastic modeling for health actuaries. Three case studies are presented: rating health plan reimbursement provisions, developing claim liabilities, and defining appropriate reinsurance levels. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1, Session 18